Albany Office Forecast Discussion
350
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
149 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered min temps the next few nights and blended the latest
MAVMOS guidance with the NBM.
Added some patchy frost to the southern Greens the next few
nights and near Glens Falls and the southern reaches of the Lake
George Region for Wed night/Thu morning. Patchy fog was also
added to some of the sheltered valleys.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dry and cool conditions with below normal temperatures
through Wednesday.
2) While forecast confidence is low on the exact track of a
potential coastal low later this week into this weekend, breezy
conditions are favored to return for locations south and east of
Albany Friday into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong Canadian surface anticyclone continues
to build south of James Bay from southeast Ontario and south-
central Quebec today. A low pressure system passing over the Mid
Atlantic States and an upper level disturbance have produced
abundant clouds this morning, which will gradually thin/decrease
by the afternoon with temps running about 5-10 degrees below
normal with highs in the mid 50s to near 60F over the hills and
mtns, and lower to mid 60s in the valleys. Clearing skies and
light to calm winds will allow for some radiational cooling
tonight. Some patchy to localized areas of frost will occur over
the southern Dacks and the southern Greens with lows in the mid
and upper 30s. The growing season ended yesterday for the
southern Dacks, so no headlines. Lows will range from the upper
30s to mid 40s in the valleys with mid 30s to lower 40s over the
higher terrain. Autumn begins today at 805 pm.
A Rex Block begins to set up on Wed with a closed anticyclone
over south-central Ontario/northern Great Lakes Region and a
closed low over the Ohio Valley and a mid level trough from the
Midwest, TN Valley eastward into the Mid Atlantic States. The
ridge at the sfc will remain in control with continued dry
conditions with temps running below normal, as max temps will be
about 5 degrees below normal with mid/upper 60s in the valleys
and mid 50s to lower 60s over the higher terrain. Ideal
radiational cooling set-up Wed night with clear skies and calm
winds. We blended the NBM and MAVMOS for mins and lows in the
mid 30s to about 40F will be common north and east of the
Greater Capital Region with some upper 30s also in the
eastern/northern Catskills. Expect lower to mid 40s from the
Capital Region south and east and within the Mohawk Valley. Some
patchy to localized areas of frost will be possible and where
the growing season continues such as portions of southern VT and
the Lake George/Glens Falls area. Some patchy to localized
areas of radiational fog will also be possible in the river
valleys and sheltered locations.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
The fair and dry weather continues on Thu with the strong sfc
high dominating one more day, as temps trend closer to seasonal
readings. Attention shifts to a developing coastal cyclone Thu
night/Fri morning near or east of the Carolinas. Multiple pieces
of short-wave energy try to phase late in the week, as
cyclogenesis occurs near the East Coast. The storm is expected
to close off Fri-Fri night east of the Mid Atlantic States and
south of Long Island/southern New England. The track, evolution
and timing of rain, winds and coastal impacts vary still on the
ensembles, deterministic medium range guidance and the EC/GFS
AI. Some solutions favor a track well offshore impacting
southeast New England and Cape Cod at best. Another cluster
favors a track closer to southeast New England and Long Island
for intermittent bands of showers (mainly light to moderate) and
breezy conditions Fri afternoon through Saturday especially
from the Capital Region/Hudson River Valley south and east. A
third scenario has the closed H500 circulation and intense
cyclone closer to Long Island and NJ especially on the weekend
for stronger winds and more appreciable rainfall late Fri into
the weekend. Overall, confidence is low with the event.
Our forecast currently favors the NBM into Fri and the WPC Day
4-7 guidance incorporated thereafter. There is a 30 to 40
percent chance of showers on Fri from the Capital Region,
eastern Catskills, and southern VT south and east. The
north/northeast winds begin to increase. Fri night through Sat
the greater probabilities of rainfall will continue to be south
and east of the Capital Region. The latest 48-hr 01Z/NBM
probabilities >1" of rainfall by 8 am Sunday are 25-40% from the
eastern Catskills/Capital Region/southern VT south and east.
The threat for showers continues over western New England Sunday.
It may get windier in the late Fri through Sat time frame with
north/northeast winds gusts in the 25-35 mph range and slightly
higher (~40 mph) over portions of western New England, Taconics,
the mid Hudson Valley and the eastern Catskills. These winds
could blow around loose objects or knock down some foliated
smaller tree limbs. Rainfall is not expected to be impactful or
cause flooding at this time. The favored scenario is close
enough to coast and passing east or stalling south/southeast of
Long Island and near southeast New England, but again confidence
is low and slight deviations will make a difference over the
next few days. Temps will be near normal through the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions continue through the
majority of the TAF period. The only exception is mainly 07 - 12
UTC tonight at ALB and GFL when radiational cooling can result
in patchy fog and MVFR and IFR visibility, respectively. Any
early morning fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise. North/northeast
winds remain sustained 5-8 KT through sunset before winds turn
light and variable overnight. Northeasterly winds turn breezier
tomorrow morning sustained 5-10kts with gusts up to 20-25kts
(strongest at PSF and POU).
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...31